Sat. Aug 13th, 2022

Brussels, 30 June 2022

    This is a non-exhaustive collection of Think Tanks reports on the invasion of Ukraine, covering the period from February 2022 onwards, which is regularly updated:

    Cyber-attacks by Russia, Ukraine’s IT Army, the use of drones on the battlefield, digital tools for refugee assistance and protection services, evolution of social media warfare, Ukraine’s application to join the EU, implications of the war for the ECB, strengthening US and NATO defence postures, Putin’s weaponisation of wheat, stress on the world food system and risk of social unrest are some of the topics covered in this update:

    CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES 

    Cyber war and Ukraine

    While Ukraine was not the first major conflict involving cyber, it was the first involving large-scale cyber operations. This report offers a preliminary review of cyber operations in the Ukraine conflict.

     

    CENTER FOR SECURITY STUDIES (CSS), ETH ZÜRICH

    The IT Army of Ukraine: structure, tasking, and ecosystem

    The IT army of Ukraine was created in an ad-hoc manner without a clearly structured and proven plan. Born out of necessity, the IT Army subsequently evolved into a hybrid construct that is neither civilian nor military, neither public nor private, neither local nor international, and neither lawful nor unlawful. This report provides the first-ever comprehensive analysis of the IT army’s structure, tasking, and ecosystem.

     

    EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK

    Russia’s war on Ukraine: timeline of cyber-attacks

    This briefing provides an overview of cyber-attacks concerning Russia’s war in Ukraine, also going back to 2014. It also examines counter cyber-attacks, the EU and international response, as well as the European Parliament’s call for stepping up cybersecurity assistance to Ukraine and for making full use of the EU’s cyber-sanctions regimes against individuals, entities and bodies responsible for or involved in the various cyber-attacks targeting Ukraine.

     

    FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE (FRS)

    Les drones sur le champ de bataille: quelles leçons tirer de leur emploi par les forces ukrainiennes?

    The article focuses on the war in Ukraine and the employment of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), commonly known as drones. More specifically, the paper analyses the use of such aerial vehicles by the Ukrainian forces against Russians, taking as an example their functions and effects in the Donbass region.

     

    FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE (FRS)

    Quels blindés pour les conflits futurs?

    The paper reflects on heavy weapons and necessary changes related to technical and capability aspects, which should be made in the future for the next generation of infantry fighting vehicles (IFV). The different issues, needs and limitations are considered.

     

    GLOBSEC POLICY INSTITUTE

    Ukraine Essential: 100 Days Brief

    This report, coming over 100 days following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, reflects on central developments and key turning points in the conflict up to the present.

     

    GLOBSEC POLICY INSTITUTE

    Interim conclusions on the consequences of the Russian war against Ukraine

    According to the author, seven weeks of Russian full-scale war against Ukraine proved the vulnerabilities of the regional and global security architecture, inconsistency of the existing international legal mechanisms, and impotence of the UN and the OSCE. Russian invasion has imminent backlashes. Should they not be addressed immediately, they could jeopardize and reverse the progressive achievements of recent decades.

     

    BROOKINGS

    Strengthening the US and NATO defense postures in Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

    Even if the war in Ukraine were to end soon, events to date have already transformed the European security environment. Among the main questions that must now be addressed is how the United States and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies should strengthen their military postures on eastern NATO territory in the future. The author believes there is now a need for a permanent forward defense posture of modest size and scale, going beyond the tripwire approach NATO has employed in the Baltic states and Poland since roughly 2017. 

     

    USIP – UNITED STATES INSTITUTE FOR PEACE

    Another way to help Ukraine: prepare now for a peace process

    The author explores the conditions and the role of the US and the EU in peace negotiations, setting out two essentials for a peace process.

     

    CIDOB

    City diplomacy and the war in Ukraine: towards a municipalism of blocs?

    The war in Ukraine has placed international municipalism at risk of confrontation among blocs that could lead to rupture. According to the author, this would not only disable its potential in the area of reconciliation but could also make it irrelevant in the international community as a contributor of solutions to the many crises which, in addition to that of Ukraine, confront the world.

     

    CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

    Ukrainian refugees: forced displacement response goes fully digital

    Digital tools are being used at historic levels for refugee assistance and protection services to Ukrainian refugees. This report analyses the benefits and risks of deploying digital technologies at each stage of a refugee’s journey.

     

    INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES

    Quelle stratégie pour l’aide civile en Ukraine ?

    Ukrainian institutions have overall withstood the shock of the war: the central government and local authorities benefit from a real legitimacy and a solid ability to govern. In this context, according to this study, priority should be given to strengthening the existing institutional system rather than creating new institutions or introducing international NGOs.

     

    EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK

    Research for REGI Committee: cities and the Ukrainian refugees

    This briefing summarises the implications of the influx of refugees from Ukraine for European cities, and how cities can navigate challenges to continue being a positive factor in the support of Ukraine. The briefing is based on official sources and expert commentaries, including from national experts, and it is written in the context of the study ‘Social challenges in cities’.

     

    CIGI

    Social media warfare is being invented in Ukraine

    When governments have “market power” in information space, social media appears to be a very powerful tool for shaping public opinion. When information space is contested there is a pitched battle being waged to set the narrative. How that battle will conclude, which side’s memes and narratives take root in which parts of the world, is as yet unclear. This article notes that the tactics and methodologies are evolving, and we are all witting or unwitting participants through our engagement with social media.

     

    EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS

    Peace versus justice: the coming European split over the war in Ukraine

    The ECFR’s research shows that, while Europeans feel great solidarity with Ukraine and support sanctions against Russia, they are split about the long-term goals. They divide between a “Peace” camp (35%) that wants the war to end as soon as possible, and a “Justice” camp that believes the more pressing goal is to punish Russia (25%).

     

    OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)

    Ukraina: od dekomunizacji do derusyfikacji (Ukraine: from decommunization to derussification)

    The article looks at the process of making a clean break from the Russian legacy in numerous domains, which Ukraine undertook in the wake of Russia’s invasion. The derussification includes banning of Russian political parties as well as elimination of Russian language, culture and symbols from public space. It is accompanied by an enhancement of Ukrainian identity and national pride.

     

    REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE)

    La humillación de Rusia, factor de división occidental

    This article points out that despite the apparent common front, there is a growing divide in the West, and especially in Europe, over Russia and the war in Ukraine.  Countries in the “field of realism” advocate a ceasefire, believing that Russia should not be allowed to win, but that it should not be humiliated either, because this will not achieve a stable order for the future. On the other hand, those in the “field of justice“, want Russia to lose and fall into a situation that makes this kind of aggression and adventurism impossible in future.

     

    EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK

    War in Ukraine: implications for the ECB

    This document contains a series of papers about monetary issues and the implications for the European Central Bank (ECB) in relation to the war in Ukraine : “And now, the Ukraine shock”, “The ECB’s normalization path: model-rather than data-driven”, “Is this time different? War, supply constraints and the resilience of monetary policy”, “The ECB and the Ukraine war: threats to price, economic and financial stability” and “The aggravated monetary policy dilemma”.

     

    EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK

    Economic repercussions of Russia’s war on Ukraine

    This paper provides a weekly digest of recent economic, financial and budgetary decisions and developments regarding Russia’s military attack against Ukraine. It also highlights policy recommendations made in the public domain to mitigate any adverse economic, financial and social effects and to support economic recovery in the EU and the Euro Area.

     

    INSTITUT FÜR WELTWIRTSCHAFT KIEL (KIEL INSTITUTE FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY)

    The Ukraine support tracker: which countries help Ukraine and how?

    This paper presents the “Ukraine Support Tracker”, which lists and quantifies military, financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war. This fourth version covers government commitments made between January 24 and June 7, 2022 and has a new detailed overview on weapon deliveries. It tracks support by 37 governments, including all G7 and European Union member countries, plus by EU institutions (thus including 38 donors).

     

    GLOBSEC POLICY INSTITUTE

    Opinion: Ukraine’s war harvest: new delivery routes

    The paper shows that Russia’s war against Ukraine has created an export crisis of similar proportions as the one that occurred during the fall of the Soviet Union. Agriculture has always represented a backbone of Ukraine’s economy, where in 2021 its share of Ukraine’s GDP was more than 10%. In the same year, the sector showed the highest increase in production – 14.4%.

     

    INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS

    Economic war against Russia

    Although most countries have condemned the Russian invasion, only a minority have nevertheless adhered to the economic sanctions implemented by the major Western economies. In this conflict, it seems that not only the inviolability of the territory is at stake, but also the sanctioning method of Western economies and, by extension, the geoeconomic vision that has governed the world until today.

     

    INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS

    Economic war against Russia

    The war in Ukraine: more stress on the world food system and risk of social unrest

    The war in Ukraine has highlighted the serious structural deficiencies of a global food system. Resilience to the challenges presented by the global food system is increasingly difficult to achieve. In the short term, this author considers it urgent to avoid the increase in famine in fragile regions and to avoid social unrest due to the increase in food prices. In the medium and long term, it is necessary to carry out a profound transformation of the world food system.

     

    ISTITUTO PER GLI STUDI DI POLITICA INTERNAZIONALE

    Strategia della tensione e price cap

    This article speaks about the risks of creating panic about the gas price rise, which could make the price increase even more, and discusses different solutions to this increment, such as a price cap.

     

    EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK

    Russia’s war on Ukraine: implications for transport

    This briefing discusses the impact, which Russia’s war has had on transport, including infrastructure damage and major transport disruptions amongst the massive flow of refugees into the EU and neighbouring countries. The sanction packages led to traffic shortages, supply chain bottlenecks and the need to bypass traditional routes, thereby lengthening journey times and increasing costs. The paper reports on the EU actions and further plans to mitigate the negative consequences on transport due to the current situation. 

     

    FRIENDS OF EUROPE

    We must trash the CAP to counter Putin’s ‘weaponisation’ of wheat

    The author states that just as Russia is ‘weaponising’ its grip on the world’s cereals markets, Europe has been pursuing a policy of unilateral disarmament. He states that the European Union urgently needs to re-think its farm policies with the same vigour it is belatedly bringing to defence spending.

     

    RYTŲ EUROPOS STUDIJŲ CENTRAS (EASTERN EUROPE STUDIES CENTRE)

    EU membership perspective for Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia: Mapping the risks of a non-candidacy option

    this brief article describes the 3 offers possible for the trio as EU candidate status, potential candidate status and the European perspective.

     

    FRIENDS OF EUROPE

    Can Ukraine become a member of the European Union?

    This article studies the new EU candidate status of Ukraine which is considered to be the best guarantee of Europe’s future security along with the continuing US presence through NATO and the best way for the EU to remain true to its original purpose of giving the European continent lasting peace.

     

    INSTITUT PRO EVROPSKOU POLITIKU EUROPEUM (EUROPEUM INSTITUTE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY)

    The European Union’s position toward Ukraine’s EU membership

    Despite Ukraine’s heroic efforts and the  mutual desire for membership, the author considers that Ukraine’s inclusion in the EU is years away. He discusses some of the pertinent factors, from committing to the EU values of “human dignity, freedom, equality,” to establishing an area of “prosperity and neighbourliness.” The process of transitioning to an EU MS is also considered and compared with the similar process for some other states, particularly Serbia.

     

    EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK

    Ukraine’s application to join the EU

    This note contains links to many international think tanks with information on different aspects concerning Russia’s war in Ukraine, such as food security, the militarisation of Russian polar politics and Ukraine’s EU candidate status.

     

    REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE)

    Los Balcanes Occidentales y la “Comunidad Geopolítica Europea”: una oferta que no se puede rechazar

    Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia’s request for candidate status to the EU has accelerated the debate about the stalled political expansion of the block. This article considers the issues of whether Ukraine should be rewarded with an “express status” as a candidate country along with Moldova and Georgia, and the proposed establishment of a European Geopolitical Community.

     

    CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES

    Interpreting the Commission opinions on the membership applications of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, and next steps for the European Council

    This article considers the Commission’s opinions on the membership applications of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. A broad geopolitical advance is favourably viewed by most EU citizens and its main international partners, note the authors.

     

    EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS

    Partnership for enlargement: a new way to integrate Ukraine and the EU’s eastern neighbourhood

    The report argues that Russia’s war on Ukraine puts the entire future European order at risk. It is already forcing a profound reconsideration of the EU’s and its neighbours’ interests. To address this, the report suggests that the EU should establish a Partnership for Enlargement that offers Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and Western Balkans states concrete steps towards deeper integration – and a pathway to eventual membership. This new partnership should include three ‘pillars’: single market integration and the reconstruction of Ukraine; a reinforced commitment to energy security and climate transition; and stronger political cooperation in security matters.

     

    GLOBSEC POLICY INSTITUTE

    Will Ukraine join the EU? A special case of strategic importance to the EU

    Had the EU leaders not taken a strategic decision in 1976 the future of democracy in Greece would be uncertain as well as its geopolitical orientation. The same applies to Ukraine now.

     

    ATLANTIC COUNCIL

    Ukraine edges closer to EU dream despite horrors of Putin’s war

    According to the author, the simple fact that modern Russia has chosen the path of dictatorship over democracy must shape the West’s response to the ongoing conflict and serve to guarantee maximum EU support for Ukraine’s further integration. Granting Ukraine candidate status is a step in the right direction, but as long as the country is stuck in the geopolitical grey zone, it will remain a target for Russian aggression and a source of international instability.

     

    CARNEGIE EUROPE

    Supporting democracy after the invasion of Ukraine

    The Russian invasion of Ukraine has altered the security and defense architecture of Europe and raises questions about longer-term trends. According to the authors, it also has the potential to reshape democracy support policies, changing practices of defending and extending democratic values and of interactions with autocratic states.

     

    REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE)

    ¿“No matarás”?: el papel de la Iglesia Ortodoxa Rusa en Ucrania

    This article analyses the role of the Russian Orthodox Church in the war in Ukraine. It has justified and blessed the war the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine, a fact that is producing a new schism in between the Orthodox Churches of the world.

     

    OSCE Network

    Russia’s war against Ukraine: implications for the future of the OSCE

    This publication presents the views of members of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) network of think tanks and academic institutions. It examines the fundamental consequences for the OSCE of Russia’s illegal and unjustifiable invasion of Ukraine.

     

    BRUSSELS SCHOOL OF GOVERNANCE

    India to profit from the war in Ukraine and the Russia-China Joint Statement

    The events in Ukraine have brought a significant foreign policy win for New Delhi. This policy brief puts in perspective the geopolitical position of India, between its long-standing strategic relationship with Russia, its ambition to face of China’s aggressive behaviour within the Indo-Pacific security grouping ‘Quad’, and the attempt by the US and its allies to draw India deeper into the Western camp.

     

    HERITAGE

    The U.S. must support Ukraine in a fiscally responsible manner

    This articles looks into the execution of U.S. support for Ukraine, calling for it to be done in a strategically sound, fully accountable and fiscally responsible manner, without threatening the US economy and livelihood of everyday Americans. A stable and secure Europe is in America’s interest, and contributions to Ukrainian self-defense make sense.

     

    JIIA – THE JAPAN INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

    The Ukraine crisis and its impact on Turkey and the Middle East

    This research report discusses specifically how the regional states have responded to, and have been impacted by, the crisis, with a particular emphasis on Turkey, which is in a unique position vis-à-vis the war.

     

    NUPI – THE NORWEGIAN INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

    The Ukraine war and food security: consequences for Norway’s partner countries

    This brief examines how Norwegian partner countries’ food security is affected by the war; the list of partners includes Tanzania, Ghana, Indonesia, Mozambique, Palestine, Mali, Somalia, and Uganda. 

    You can find earlier updates here,

    Source – EU Council